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The lotto ball was made more uniform. So, for many years, the vibrations of gas molecules was said to be a random process only because of the shear vastness of the problem and our inability to analyze it. Brownian motion would be considered a random process. Blackjack would still be considered a random game of chance and most people wouldn't even know what Texas Holdem is.The general public seemed to accept this point of view and left stock market investing to the professionals. Without them, the universe would be more mysterious. It remained a valid theory only as long as the problem remained too complex to analyze. Computers to the rescue.
If this were true, why have the lotteries been trying to make their random games of chance, MORE RANDOM? Isn't random, random?The answer is NO. Today, however, from the top Wall Street investment firms down to the individual investor, no one is taking a random walk. Malkiel's premise was that the profits earned from carefully selecting five stocks based upon a detailed analysis of their past performance would fare no better than five randomly selected stocks. Air blower design was improved and motor speed was regulated to insure air speed did not vary with power fluctuations. Technical stock analysis software abounds. This has had the effect of making the lotteries appear more random.So, what's up with the word random? Why all the confusion? As with most words, over use and misuse of the word tends to dilute its meaning. First, any possible mechanical advantage due to lotto ball design was addressed. The numbers were no longer painted on the lotto balls because this unbalanced the ball.Good Luck and I hope you Win the Big One!. Over the years, scientists, mathematicians and engineers have misused the word random by automatically applying it to any observation or analysis that was too complex to describe with simple mathematical formulas. Hundreds of millions of dollars are spent each year on computer analysis of past stock prices with the overall goal of predicting tomorrow's prices. Multiple machines were used and selected at random for each drawing. But, today, scientists understand that it is not random. In fact, in recent years, the concept of lottery randomness has been challenged and, like the casinos, the lotteries have responded with various actions. But, predicting the paths of trillions of gas molecules is rather daunting.
The same is true of the Random Walk theory. So, what's the secret to successful stock market investing? If you invest intelligently, study the past performance of each stock and apply a basic understanding of probability you can gain an advantage. You see, random doesn't mean that trends do not exist; it simply means that trends are hard to identify
.For example, the paths followed by two colliding gas molecules are easily predicted; not random. In almost knee jerk fashion, anything they didn't understand and couldn't explain must be random. The Random Walk theory would still be accepted. In fact, today, to invest in the stock market without thoroughly analyzing the stock's past performance would be considered amateurish, naive and foolhardy. Also, winning China Embroidery machine parts Wholesalers at Blackjack or Texas Holdem is no longer considered pure luck. The myth that lotteries are random games of chance would still be generally accepted as fact. This idea was formally put forth in 1973 in a book by Burton Malkiel called 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street'. Over the last forty years, state sponsored lotteries have trumpeted the random draw theory; everyone has the same chance to win and nobody has an advantage.A few years ago, the common belief was that stock prices were a random game of chance. So, the validity of so called random games of chance is being challenged.
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